In a tweet on Sunday, economist and crypto analyst Alex Krüger disclosed that Bitcoin investors should expect massive market volatility as the BVOL index closed below 25.
“Every time $BVOL closed below 25, an explosive bitcoin move soon followed,” Krüger tweeted. “Twice up, once down (Nov 2018).”
“Historically, that’s a guaranteed recipe for massive volatility,” Eight Global CEO Michaël van de Poppe emphasized, taking a leave from Krüger’s analysis. Elaborating, van de Poppe disclosed that the BVOL metric preceded the Bitcoin crash to $3k in 2018, the run from $4k to $14k in 2019, and the start of the last bull run with a break above $10k in 2020.
According to Krüger, this volatility could easily be triggered by a variation of about 0.2 from economists’ expectations in the September CPI data to be released by the US Labor Department on Thursday.
It bears mentioning that Bitcoin’s price has become very sensitive to US inflation data this year. Notably, the CPI data release has often preceded price slumps in the asset as persisting inflation continues to push the Fed to raise rates forcing investors to opt out of risk markets.
Moreover, a CryptoQuant analyst on Friday warned investors to expect a price dump with the Fed rate hike announcement for November, which is coming next week. As per the analysis, institutions are yet to turn bulls, as there have been no significant changes in the Coinbase Premium Index and the Fund Volume Index.
While October is historically regarded as a good month for Bitcoin, as highlighted by analyst Ali Martinez two Sundays ago, this is not usually the case in bear markets. A tweet from the analyst on Saturday reveals that the $19k price point represents the most significant support for the asset. Ali asserts that it represents a demand zone with over 1.3 million addresses buying over 680k BTC. According to Ali, a break below could lead to a huge price dump as there is no support below.
Notably, seasoned analysts continue to predict steep price drops to $12k and below.
However, not all analysts are pessimistic, as the famous pseudonymous crypto trader il Capo of Crypto is today predicting a surge to $21k.
At press time, Bitcoin is trading at the $19,131 price point, down 0.21% in the last 24 hours. Notably, the asset saw record accumulation last week, with whales adding over 46k BTC to their bags.